What does it mean for Russia to recognize the documents of the DPR and LPR?
Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the recognition of documents issued to residents of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. Is it possible that this is the first step towards recognizing the sovereignty of the republics following the example of Abkhazia and South Ossetia? And if so, then what to expect next? The annexation of the DPR and LPR to Russia?
The Russian Foreign Ministry explains the decision of the Russian president with humanitarian considerations: they say, now people will be able to hide from the war. Experts, meanwhile, are racking their brains: could Moscow’s demonstrative step lead to the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions?
Putin’s decree was issued on the day of the Normandy Format negotiations in Munich, in which the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany took part. This was the first meeting of the four foreign ministers since November last year. On that day, the Russian and Ukrainian ministers assured each other that reducing tensions in eastern Ukraine was their common goal. However, then Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had to explain the essence of the presidential decree, where “it is written in black and white” that Russia was guided by “purely humanitarian considerations.” The minister emphasized that the regime will operate until the Minsk agreements are implemented, which, however, have already become a figure of speech.
Meanwhile, Belarus, with which Russia’s oil and gas conflict is developing into a political one, refused to allow entry into the country with DPR and LPR passports.
Sergei Zheleznyak, Deputy Secretary of the General Council of the United Russia party, member of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs:
– By decree of the President of Russia, according to which, until a complete settlement in the Donbass, Russia will recognize documents issued to people living on the territory of the DPR and LPR, our country will significantly ease the lives of millions of people who find themselves in the zone of military conflict in the Donbass. This important political and humanitarian measure will greatly simplify the interaction of citizens of the DPR and LPR with Russian institutions and enterprises, including allowing them to freely stay on Russian territory, without the need to collect various certificates and supporting documents from the Ukrainian authorities, who are hostile to the residents of Donbass.
"Proof of Occupation"
The text of the presidential decree states that Russia recognizes identity cards, education diplomas, birth and professional qualification documents, as well as death, marriage and divorce certificates. These documents can be issued by “the relevant authorities actually operating in the territories of the specified areas,” that is, by the structures of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Citizens of Ukraine and stateless persons will be able to enter and leave Russia using these documents without issuing visas.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko immediately called Vladimir Putin’s decree a “violation of international law” and “proof of Russian occupation”
. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader made more interesting statements. For example, he announced that Russia is testing new weapons on civilians in Donbass. “In Ukraine, we are defending Europe from Russian aggression. And we all know that after Ukraine this may affect other countries. In Donetsk, Russia is testing the most modern weapons systems in the world,” Poroshenko said.
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Head of Zelensky's office: Kyiv does not intend to negotiate with the DPR and LPR
The head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Andrei Ermak, said that the country’s authorities are not going to negotiate with representatives of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR).
A version immediately appeared that in this way Moscow decided to facilitate the entry of Russian volunteers into the territory of the self-proclaimed republics. After all, they can also be issued documents in the DPR and LPR, and it will be difficult to prove that they came from Russia. However, the explanation is rather weak - it will be quite easy to establish that the passport holder has not previously lived in the Donbass. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to another version.
Georgian script
Information on the tacit recognition of DPR and LPR passports in Russia
appeared at the beginning of February. Then the presidential press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said that we are talking “not about the official recognition of passports,” but “about individual decisions that could be made by municipal, local authorities, as well as various companies based solely on humanitarian considerations.”
And how can you doubt it? According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), from mid-April 2014 to December 1, 2021, at least 9,758 people were killed in Donbass, more than 2,000 of them were civilians. Another consideration is that the escalation of hostilities has made it more difficult for Russia to supply humanitarian aid to the Donbass. The decision by Russian authorities to help residents of eastern Ukraine hide from the war greatly reduces the problem.
So now the passports are recognized. How can one not remember Abkhazia and South Ossetia? In April 2008, one of the measures to resolve the conflict in the region was the recognition by Russia of documents that were issued to individuals by the actual authorities of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. At that time, this decision of the Russian authorities was also explained by considerations of a humanitarian nature. And already in August 2008, Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Now Sergei Lavrov is saying that Russia’s recognition of passports of residents of self-proclaimed republics does not mean a change in position towards them. However, the republics themselves have a different opinion. “Today has brought the republic one step closer to global recognition of our sovereignty,” says LPR leader Igor Plotnitsky. So the leader of the “Right Russia” Sergei Mironov has already stated that Russia’s recognition of the passports of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR should be the first step towards the country’s recognition of the state independence of these republics.
Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko also agrees with this, arguing that Putin’s decree is “de facto recognition of two separatist republics.”
Changing trend?
According to Fesenko, “this is unlikely to lead to a military escalation, but this, of course, makes the implementation of the political part of the Minsk agreements virtually impossible.” However, there is another opinion: Putin’s decree is precisely aimed at pushing Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements, and at the same time it is a signal to the West. Like, “don’t reconsider your attitude towards Russia’s role in this conflict - we will move on.”
Could recognition of DPR and LPR passports lead to new anti-Russian sanctions? Cliff Burns, an attorney at the Washington law firm Bryan Cave LLP, thinks it can. But under the new US President, the unpredictable Donald Trump, it is difficult to make predictions - his statements about sanctions are as contradictory as he himself. Meanwhile, the influential Foreign Policy magazine published an article blaming Kyiv for inciting the conflict. Russian experts immediately assumed that Washington was changing its attitude towards the Ukrainian authorities. “And this is not the first episode in well-known Western mainstream media when there are hints that the Ukrainian side is equally to blame for the escalation,” says the director of the Center for Liberal-Conservative Politics. P. Stolypin and P. Struve Alexander Kazakov. – It is noteworthy that a direct accusation has now been made. I think the behavior of the mainstream media is actually influenced by Trump's position. In addition, everyone remembers the promise to “bury” those who behave incorrectly. And this position opens up the opportunity for the Western media to tell the truth, which they knew before, but could not express because they would lose political support and funding... There is an understanding: if it continues as it was before, under Obama, there will be a conflict driven into a dead end and no Western leader can get him out of there.”
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1652Russian senators commented on Kyiv’s demand for the dissolution of the DPR and LPR
Members of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation appreciated Kyiv's statement that the Ukrainian authorities will be ready to implement the political part of the Minsk agreements only after the dissolution of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
Why now?
The Russian leadership had at least two good reasons for recognizing the DPR documents. First: not today or tomorrow Kyiv will try to attack Donbass in full force - it’s not for nothing that Poroshenko dragged a hundred thousand army to the borders with the people’s republics. The militia forces - and this is approximately 50 thousand bayonets - are clearly not enough to repel the attack. We will have to use the “north wind” and “vacationers”. What if the “vacationers” have to attack, say, Kyiv? It will be inconvenient for them to do this with Russian documents, and for the Russian leadership there are possible costs, and perhaps not only moral ones. Why wake up the daring, if it’s easier to distribute DPR-LPR passports to recruits? In the end, is it their personal choice, or do you have doubts? And the second reason is logistics. From day to day, the republics are expected to nationalize enterprises owned by Ukrainian bigwigs. Previously, these enterprises exported their products to Ukraine. And now there is a blockade at the border. Cargo can only be transported to Russia. But with DPR-LPR registration numbers, trucks can reach a maximum of the Rostov region. They are not allowed further. And now they will let us through - after all, their local numbers in our country are now officially recognized. Take your goods wherever you want!
MEANWHILE
65.5% of Ukrainians blame their own government for the war. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology commissioned by the public organization “Media Detector”. Respondents note that the war in Donbass continues because it is beneficial to the Ukrainian government and oligarchs. 38.8% of survey participants believe that the government is guilty of deliberately disrupting the truce and the Minsk process. At the same time, assessing the past, only 34.3% of Ukrainians believe that an illegal armed coup took place in Kyiv in the winter of 2014. 56.4% assess these events as a “people's revolution.”
Another survey was conducted in Russia. As VTsIOM experts have established, more than a third of citizens support Russia’s neutrality in the conflict in Ukraine. In turn, 24% of respondents were in favor of recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR). Only 18% of respondents suggested accepting them into Russia.
BY THE WAY
The topic of recognition of DPR and LPR passports received an interesting continuation. Some media outlets have noticed that Joseph Kobzon should be expelled from the United Russia party, since he is the holder of a passport of the Donetsk People's Republic, while dual citizenship is not allowed. However, fellow party members of the artist and deputy considered these claims unfounded. “Iosif Davydovich Kobzon is not a citizen of a foreign state due to the fact that the Donetsk People’s Republic is not a state,” said the first deputy head of the party’s Central Executive Committee, Konstantin Mazurevsky.
