Methodological provisions for calculating economic efficiency indicators of investment projects

Structure of the migration process

Population migration is a complex socio-demographic process, including the following stages:

• preparatory, or initial stage - territorial mobility of the population is formed;
• the main stage is the actual resettlement;
• the final stage is the adaptation of migrants to a new place.

All stages are closely interconnected. So a migrant is a new settler during the period of moving from one territory to another, and a new settler is a former migrant during the period of adaptation and settlement in the area of ​​settlement. New settlers are potential migrants, as they have increased migration activity.

The population living in settlements of different social status, in different regions of the country, differs in the degree of migration mobility, depending on: the level of socialization of individuals, population groups and the entire society of a particular territory; features of the population structure (gender, age, ethnic, genetic, social, etc.).

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Increasing the process of transition of new settlers into the quality of old residents is the antithesis of the intensification of migration mobility of the population. Accommodation characterizes the transition of a migrant to a new settler and a new settler to an old resident.

Survival in a structural sense includes adaptation, the process of adapting to new living conditions at the place of settlement. The survival time of migrants varies and on average is about 10 years.

Survival rate is characterized by wide territorial diversity and depends on

• geographical structure of migration connections;
• migrant exit points;
• relocation area;
• different structure of migrants and population;
• change of settled status during relocation;
• conditions of development in new places
• differences in natural and climatic environments;
• structures of migration flows, etc.

By timely creating conditions for the rapid adaptation of migrants and regulating migration flows, the efficiency of both migration processes and survival can be significantly increased.

AuditingExperts

The difference between cash inflows and cash outflows is called the net cash inflow (outflow) associated with investing activities.

3. Cash flows in connection with financing activities reflect the method of raising funds to finance the company's activities, as well as to pay holders of its securities. Collapsible racks. Trade racks of private label industry.

Sources of cash are, as a rule, investors who buy shares of the company with these funds, and lenders who lend funds against its bonds, bills and mortgages. The outflow goes to the owners of the company's shares (in the form of dividends and other payments, as well as as payment for the shares they repurchase) and to the company's creditors (in the form of payment of the principal portion of the debt).

Payment of interest on debt relates to cash flows in connection with the main activity. The difference between the receipt and expenditure of funds is called the net inflow (outflow) of funds in connection with the financial activities of the company.

4. The consequences of changes in the exchange rate of foreign currencies - an increase or decrease in the value of funds in foreign currency, expressed in national currency when recalculated or converted from one currency to another. This section is present only in the reports of companies with foreign operations.

5. Account reconciliation is carried out in accordance with GAAP requirements for the need to show cash flows in the report - opening balance, changes and ending balance.

Non-cash investing and financing activities that involve the use of assets other than cash as a medium of exchange (for example, the transfer of shares or the assumption of debt in exchange for land or equipment) are reported in a separate table or in footnotes to the statement of cash flows. funds. Combined transactions are also reflected, where settlements are made in cash and other assets.

Compilation methods

The cash flow statement can be prepared in two ways.

Direct method. The balance of cash flows in connection with the main activity is calculated by summing up all cash inflows from it and subtracting from the resulting amount all expenses due to the main activity. Balance sheets are compiled in a similar way for all other types of activities highlighted above, after which the final cash flow balance is calculated.

Indirect method. To obtain a balance of cash flows in connection with the main activity, all costs not related to the payment of cash, and above all depreciation (the quantitative expression of the depreciation of fixed assets) are added to the net profit indicator (from the income statement or balance sheet). as a result of their use). From the amount received, items leading to an increase in assets or a decrease in liabilities (increase in accounts receivable or decrease in accounts payable) are subtracted, and items leading to an increase in liabilities (increase in accounts payable) are added to net profit. That is, all items that do not involve cash flow are added to net profit and subtracted from it, and the resulting result (remainder) corresponds to the cash flow balance. In other words, net profit is considered as the balance of cash flows, adjusted by the balance of transactions that do not involve cash flows. To obtain the cash balance, the reverse procedure is used.

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The concept of migration flow

Definition 1

Migration flow is the entire set of relocations occurring within a territorial system over a certain time. This is a structurally diverse collection.

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The most common socio-demographic feature of the migration structure is the increased proportion, relative to the population of the country as a whole, of people of working age, men, alone in the migration flow.

Particular features of the migration structure depend on the indicators of the ethnic composition of the population, historically established migration ties, and the industrial specialization of the territories. Particular features are limited and mainly regional in nature.

The main factors determining the power of migration flows are the population size of the territories between which migration connections are established, as well as their location.

Migration flows are the more powerful, the larger the population of the territories between which migration exchange is observed. The closer these territories are to each other, the more active their migration connections and the greater the migration flows.

The power of migration flows is also influenced by:

• natural factors;
• historical connections;
• ethnic factors;
• management decisions;
• economic factors, etc.

In the migration processes of Russia, the following directions are distinguished, the most important in socio-demographic and economic terms: the outflow of rural residents to urban areas; resettlement to the sparsely populated northern and eastern regions of the country; intensive influx of migrants to regional and republican centers and large cities.

Note 1

To manage migration flows in all three directions at the resettlement stage, the main condition is to identify possible exit points for migrants and areas of their settlement based on labor availability indicators. To solve this problem, it is necessary to improve the development of the labor force balance for all major settlements and territories.

Analysis of the main migration flows in the world

Analysis of the main migration flows in the world

Content

Population migrations have a very long history, but over the last two centuries there has been free mass migration, that is, migration does not occur under force, such as during the resettlement of slaves. In the last two centuries, both the need for residents of poor countries to move to rich countries and the ability of potential migrants to pay for such relocations have sharply increased.

Relevance. In the 20th century The gap between the living standards of first and third world countries has widened significantly, and hence the incentives to move have increased. At the same time, the standard of education and living standards in poor countries has improved, and the introduction of new technologies has significantly reduced transport costs, greatly improving the ability of potential emigrants to pay for their move. The development of the media played an important role.

During the course of modernization, each country goes through a stage of demographic transition: improved nutrition and health care lead to a decrease in child mortality, thereby increasing the proportion of surviving children in the total population. Two decades later, this increase in the number of children is beginning to translate into an increase in the number of young adults, that is, those who respond best to immigration incentives.

The growth in the scale and expansion of the geography of forced migration in the last decade of the 20th century - the beginning of the 21st century. is the result of persistent and re-emerging hotbeds of political tension, wars, ethnic conflicts, and environmental disasters.

The theoretical basis of this study was the work of domestic scientists such as: V.G. Abramov, A.N. Averin, A.S. Akhiezer, D.I. Valentey, A.B. Gromov, Zh.A. Zayonchkovskaya, V. M.Moiseenko, V.I.Perevedentsev, B.S.Khorev, L.L.Rybakovsky, S.V.Ryazantsev, V.I.Staroverov, T.V.Cherevichko and others. Issues of international migration and its impact on development world processes in the era of globalization are devoted to the works of O.I. Arshba, G.I. Glushchenko, M.B. Denisenko, N.N. Zinchenko, I.V. Ivakhnyuk, V.A. Iontsev, E.S. Krasinets, A N. Kamensky, S. E. Metelev, A. V. Topilin, E. B. Tyuryukanova and others.

Purpose and objectives of the study.

The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the main migration flows in the world.

This goal led to the formulation and solution of the following tasks:

− show the dynamics of migration flows in the world;

− analyze the geography of migration flows;

− identify Russia’s place in global migration flows.

The object of the study is migration processes in the world.

The subject of the study is the analysis of the dynamics of migration flows in the world

The information base of the study consists of statistical data from population censuses; statistical publications of countries: Russia, USA, Europe, electronic version of the bulletin Population and Society - Demoscope Weekly, data from International Migration 2009. Wall Chart. The main information base for analyzing trends and prospects for international migration is the Global Migration Database, maintained by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

The work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, and a list of references. In the first chapter, the work describes the general dynamics of migration flows. The second chapter examines migration flows in Europe, the USA, and Africa. The third chapter examines Russia's place in global migration flows.

1. Dynamics of migration flows

A set of multidirectional relocations taking place at a certain time within a particular territorial system, i.e. between its parts constitutes a migration flow.[1] The migration flow is formed from a series of departures and ends with a series of arrivals. The totality of all migration flows, taken, naturally, in one direction (geographical or social, interterritorial or intersettlement), constitutes the total migration flow for the country. If some features of the migration flow are due to different migration mobility of population groups with different socio-demographic characteristics, then others are due to natural-geographical, historical and other specifics. Here the structure of flows is formed due to certain, including socio-economic conditions.

The migration flow can be divided primarily depending on the geography of the exit areas and places of settlement of migrants. Moreover, the more territories there are in migration interaction, the more structurally complex the migration flows, the greater the number of elementary flows.

Internal migration is the movement of population within a country.

External migration is movement from one country to another.

Rice. 1 Migration flows [2]

Main migration indicators: number of arrivals and number of departures. The difference between these indicators, called the migration balance, reflects migration growth or population decline.

The number of arrivals and departures is distributed by gender, age, and reasons for migration.

Between 2005 and 2010, the number of migrants in the world increased by 18.7 million people.

The growth rate of the number of international migrants globally has increased in the current decade compared to the 1990s. If in 1990-1995 the average annual increase in the total number of international migrants in the world was 1.3%, in 1995-2000 - 1.5%, then in 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 - 1.8% per year (Fig. 2). Moreover, if we exclude refugees from the number of international migrants, their number grew even faster in the previous five years (1990-2005), but in 2005-2010 the growth rate of this “purified” group of international migrants turned out to be slightly lower than taking into account refugees ( 1.7% per year). [4]

The growth rate of the number of international migrants in developed countries in 1900-2005 was noticeably higher than in developing countries, but in 2005-2010 the ratio changed: the growth rate of the number of international migrants in developing countries (including refugees) exceeded the growth rate of international migrants (with including and excluding refugees) in developed countries, increasing to 2.0% per year. If refugees are excluded from the total number of international migrants in developing countries, the growth rate will be slightly lower (1.6%), although previously this category was growing faster.

Rice. 2 Growth rate of the number of migrants in the world as a whole.

The average annual growth rate of international migrants between 2005 and 2010 among major world regions was particularly high in South Africa (7.3%) and Southern Europe (5.2%). East Africa and Central Asia have seen a decline in the number of international migrants (Figure 3). A decrease in the number of international migrants was observed in 4 of the 5 former Central Asian republics of the USSR, except Kazakhstan, and the most significant was in Kyrgyzstan - by 5% per year, while in the rest it was approximately -1.5% per year.[8]

Rice. 2 Average annual growth rate of the number of international migrants in the main regions of the world in 2005-2010, %

Since the number of international migrants in each country is formed not only as a result of a certain balance of immigration and emigration, but also decreases under the influence of migrant mortality, then, estimating the total increase in the number of migrants for the period 2005-2010 at 24.4 million people, international experts made adjustment for 5.7 million deaths during this time and received a final increase in the number of migrants in the world of 18.7 million people.

In developed countries, net international migration over the same period amounted to 14.7 million people, in developing countries - almost 9.7 million people.

In Europe it amounted to almost 8.1 million people, including 3.8 million people in Southern Europe, and 1.5 million people each in Northern and Western Europe. In North America - 5.8 million people.

Net migration to Asia from 2005 to 2010 was almost 6.8 million, including 4.2 million to West Asia, 1.2 million to Southeast Asia, and 0.8 million to South Asia.

Due to international migration in 2005-2010, the population of developed countries increased by an average of 2.2% per year, while the population of developing countries decreased by 0.5%.[8]

International migration is developing largely as a response to ongoing demographic shifts in the world's population. As a result of population aging, developed countries are forced to deal with the looming problem of a growing shortage of workers relative to dependents, while developing countries are under pressure from having an excess working-age population for their economies.

The average annual balance of migration exchange between developed countries and developing countries amounted to 2.7 million people per year in 2005-2010, or 2.2%. The intensity of the migration loss of the population of developing countries was slightly lower - 0.5%, and for the group of 49 least developed countries the migration loss was 315 thousand people, or -0.4% on average per year.

In absolute terms, the most significant losses as a result of migration exchange were suffered by Asia, decreasing by an average of 1.1 million people. As a result of migration exchange, the population of Latin America (by 804 thousand people) and Africa (by 1.0 million people) also decreased. The population of North America, on the contrary, increased in 2005-2010 due to migration growth by an average of 1.2 million people per year, Europe - by 1.3 million people. The intensity of migration growth was highest in North America, and the migration decline was highest in Latin America (Fig. 3).

Rice. 3. Average annual balance of migration by major regions of the world, 2005-2010, thousand people and % [8]

Among the large regions of the world, one can note a rather intensive migration increase in the population of Southern Europe (an average of 4.9% per year), exceeding the value for North America (3.6%) and the USA (3.3%). In general, in Eastern Europe, migration growth (or rather, decline) was close to zero.

In 10 of the 206 countries and territories of the world for which estimates of the intensity of net migration in 2005-2010 are available, it exceeded 10%, including Qatar, Singapore, Western Sahara, Macau (PRC), UAE, Liberia, Iceland, Kuwait . It was about 8-9% in Ireland, Luxembourg, Jordan, Kuwait, Burundi and Spain. The Russian Federation ranks 80th in this series with an indicator of 0.4% (Fig. 15). According to UN experts, the population of 86 countries of the world grew due to migration growth in 2005-2010.

The majority of international migrants arriving in developed countries come from developing countries. Among immigrants who arrived in the United States and Canada from 2000 to 2007, 80% were from developing countries. Among those immigrating to Australia, the UK and Spain, the proportion was between 50% and 60%. But among those who immigrated to Germany it did not reach even a third.

Funds flowing from migrants to developing countries amounted to US$246 billion in 2007—twice as much as all international development assistance

Remittances represent the most immediate and most tangible benefit of international migration. According to World Bank estimates, the volume of remittances worldwide has increased several times in recent years, from US$102 billion in 1995 to US$232 billion in 2005 and US$380 billion in 2007.

The share of global remittances going to developing countries has also increased, from 57% in 1995 ($58 billion) to 65% in 2009 ($246 billion, which, incidentally, is more than double all international aid. provided to these countries for development). According to UN experts, the amount of migrant remittances received in developing countries in 2000 amounted to 1.9% of GDP, and the amount of remittances received by developed countries amounted to 0.4% of GDP. The largest amounts of remittances from migrants go to Asia ($145 billion) and Europe ($125 billion), and are most important for Africa, estimated at 3.1% of GDP (Figure 4).